Think the bad, the unthinkable. What happens to Apple, the Mac, the iPod, and Mac users when Steve Jobs leaves Apple?

Who’s sufficiently capable to fill those very large shoes? Who would want the job? Who makes the selection? This question pops up from time to time, more so now that Apple is enjoying tremendous success at every corner.

Is there an heir apparent in the Apple management hierarchy? Some say yes, some say not. Is an outsider capable of leading Apple? Ask any 100 Mac watchers and you’re like to get about 127 different answers.

Writer Douglas McIntyre says Apple’s stock options back-dating problems are getting worse. I don’t think so, but give the man some room. After all, it was a set of messy management decisions that ousted folks from HP’s board recently. Could Steve Jobs be next?

Most outsiders and insiders say no, which means McIntyre’s argument is thin enough not to skate on. Stranger things have happened, though. Assume the worst from a couple of angles. Steve Jobs is forced to resign. Or, worse, Steve Jobs becomes too ill and must step aside. Or, retires.

Whatever, Apple’s high flying stock is likely to take a huge hit as Jobs is very much intertwined with Apple’s success and the decisions that beget that success. McIntyre lists a who’s who of potential candidates to fill the CEO slot at Apple should Jobs depart (for whatever reason).

Among them are Phil Schiller, Apple’s capable, chubby head of global marketing. Tough and quiet is Tim Cook, head of the Mac division. He’s on the short list.

The rest of the list needs water, a little seasoning, and, well, the rest of the list needs to have more names to replace the names on the rest of his list.

Jerome York? Yes, he’s on Apple’s board, but at 70 he’s hardly Apple culture savvy. Jim Allchin? Puhleeze. He’s responsible for Windows Vista. No thanks. Sue Decker, CFO of Yahoo? She’s a bean counter. Female CEO’s in high profile, high tech companies haven’t fared well lately.

Those are McIntyre’s top choices. Steve Wozniak is not on the short list, though he might bring back a better menu at the Apple cafeteria.  You’d certainly see him there more often, right?

Apple’s key designer, Jonathan Ive is considered a hot property, but has little experience beyond design. Bertrand Serlet, Apple’s senior VP of software engineering would make an interesting candidate. Trying to understand anything he said would make it interesting.

As it stands, I have no desire to keep or track a list of potential Jobs replacements. Apple would be hurt more this time than when he left in 1985.

Still, speculation is a dish best served hot, so my money is on Tim Cook, Apple’s COO. Lots of experience and respect inside and outside Apple. Who’s your choice for leader of the free Mac world? Got a list? Got an idead? It’s time to share.

The only person I can think of that might bring with him/her some of the enthusiasm to make great products is Guy Kawasaki. He doesn’t have the experience running large companies, but his venture cap experience helps, and he was there in the beginning of the mac. At least, I think he could recognize people who would keep the company running the “apple way.”

I am sure there are many others, but he was the first person that came to my head.

Good article, but has Steve made mention of his intentions to leave Apple (again) and I missed it?

I know this may not make sense to most anyone else, but my candidate to replace Steve, should he opt to retire or what have you, would be Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HP. Keep in mind however, I would much prefer Steve to remain “forever!”

Companies have short memories, but I imagine Apple has a rich and instructive enough history of ups and downs for it to stay on the straight and narrow after Steve Jobs retires, whenever that may be.  Whoever takes Steve’s place would have to be a complete doughnut to mess things up.  Then again, stranger things have been known to happen.

The share price would probably take a hit if Mr Jobs were to step aside without warning, but I don’t think that’ll happen.  Most likely would be an announcement of his intention to step aside (in two to three years from the date of announcement) once his replacement has been thoroughly groomed.  Keynote addresses will become a joint effort between Steve and his replacement, with Steve gradually taking more and more of a backseat.  This would give Wall Street time enough time to realise the company’s wheels aren’t falling off without Steve at the helm.  By the time Steve does leave it’ll be business as usual. 

Well, that’s the best case scenario.

Apple disclosed it has a successor plan in place. I first wondered if disclosing the replacement might be a good idea in order to stabilize the stock price. But, what would happen if that person leaves for what ever reason before services are needed? Maybe an exceptional outsider would suddenly become available. I don’t know the right answer, with the exception of wishing Steve immortality and we know that’s not the case. Steve being a significant stakeholder, not in the realm of his Pixar/Disney stakes, could still weigh in as Martha Stewart like consultant. At this point it seems only he and the other Directors really know for sure. After the HP fiasco it’s unlikely any Board member will talk out of school.

RKW - 10 October 2006 11:30 AM

The only person I can think of that might bring with him/her some of the enthusiasm to make great products is Guy Kawasaki. He doesn’t have the experience running large companies, but his venture cap experience helps, and he was there in the beginning

Guy was my first choice as well. I think he ‘gets it’ in regards to combining hardware, software, ease-of-use, and style.

Whoever took over would have to have an overdeveloped sense of aesthetics and artistry - and the personality to will that vision into actual shipping products.

Steve Jobs has been on such a roll that it’s hard to imagine him making a mistake. But he has made a few… the Cube, a few of those strange iMac variants that seemed only for those on LSD, one-button mice, NeXT hardware before coming back to Apple, etc…

And some of his ideas tend to emphasize form and style over function. Again, that one-button mouse, the orginal bare desktop in OSX, the resistance to put a few more helpful buttons on the Apple remote. Minor, really. Apple thrive anyhow. And most of these were ‘fixed,’ as I imagine someone gradually corrected Jobs’ thinking. ;o)

I’m glad they added video to iPod. I hope they allow 3rd party content via iTV. I hope they add a few more buttons to that remote! I’m glad Steve came to realize that you can, indeed, put the computer behind a flat panel monitor and it will sell like crazy!

I’m scattered tonite, drank too much coffee. I’m just pointing out that Jobs is one-of-a-kind but has made mistakes. Will someone come along with that much vision and charisma and energy? I doubt it. These are rare beasts. But he is not perfect. And that provides a little hope for the next guy to step in his shoes as CEO of Apple. There have been MANY contributors of great ideas and fantastic hardware and software engineering and world-class design. I think as long as the overall vision is kept intact, Apple could go on.

Yes, I’d be nervous and wondering all the time, “where would we be if Steve Jobs were still at Apple… what kind of insanely great products are we not enjoying today due to his absence...”

I’m not sure about Guy. I mean, I used to be active on his Evangelist back in the day and I’ve read some of his books; he’s got some great ideas. I just don’t think his personality, while great, is ideal for the position. That is to say I’m not even sure he’d even want the job. He definitely gives the impression of supporting role/advisor, rather than the pioneering leader.

But, yeah, Claris Emailer was great, in its day.

I swear, the article “What About Apple After Steve Jobs” has appeared somewhere in some form at least once a week, perhaps daily since Steve Jobs returned to Apple. The question seems to be an obsession. Please give it a rest- it is pure speculation, and I hope the question isn’t answered for a long, long time to come. Besides, today’s guesses are not necessarily what tomorrow’s would be. My God, the guy loses a couple of pounds and people think he’s dying- another Apple product scores and the “what if” paranoia begins again. Enough already.

auramac - 13 October 2006 02:13 PM

I swear, the article “What About Apple After Steve Jobs” has appeared somewhere in some form at least once a week, perhaps daily since Steve Jobs returned to Apple. The question seems to be an obsession. Please give it a rest… Enough already.

No, it’s not idle speculation and not deserving of “rest.” I own AAPL stock and if something happens to Steve, worse happens to the stock price. If the head of HP dies in a flaming Baked Alaska accident, who cares? Spouse? Chef? The stock won’t budge. It might even go up.  If Steve goes zonkers? Bad time for AAPL holders. Keep asking the question and maybe Apple will have a successor plan go public.

It’s the danger of building a brand around a personality. Can Steve be replaced? certainly, but it’ll take some effort to find the right person and having found them communicate the same passion for nitpicking.

“It’s the danger of building a brand around a personality.”

True. And the endless questioning perpetuates that. The reality, too, however, is that this “personality” is largely responsible for creating and re-creating the brand.

Tough act to follow. If a successor or potential successor were in place and named publicly- could you imagine the analyses and dissection that would take place? He/she would be neutered years before he stepped into the role. It would be easier running for president!

I trust that behind closed doors, Steve Jobs and his baby, Apple, know what they’re doing.

auramac - 13 October 2006 02:13 PM

I swear, the article “What About Apple After Steve Jobs” has appeared somewhere in some form at least once a week, perhaps daily since Steve Jobs returned to Apple.....  The question seems to be an obsession. Please give it a rest- it is pure speculation...........  Enough already.

This is one of those idiosyncrasies of the web that we talked about in another topic. Message boards are for the purpose of discussion and speculation and debate. It’s strange to sign in to a forum topic and bemoan the messages on that topic, especially when you have to select the very topic you’re bemoaning!

It’s like going to a nude beach and then griping about how nudity offends you.

It’s fun to discuss this stuff with other Mac aficionados!

bugsnw - 13 October 2006 09:06 PM

It’s like going to a nude beach and then griping about how nudity offends you.

I’ve gone nude to a couple of nude beaches. Some of the nudity was offensive. Seriously. Multi-layered winter clothing would have been better.

Touché, Bambi

Oh, by the way, last night I was showing my wife my new, ultra-sophisticated, suave Photo Booth pic that I now use in here and instead of complimenting me on my artistic skills (or license?), she says… “Who’s Bambi and why is she your buddy?!?”

Accountants.............

Don’t wanna spoil anyone’s fun.

Didn’t know that discussing had to mean agreeing…

No time to be at the beach- too cold. Putting my dark sunglasses on and going home.

Yeah.. Guy Kawasaki. I always loved that guy, subscribed to the list…

Honestly, I don’t wanna see anyone but Steve running Apple. I’d hate to see things change in a bad way… I will officially offer my services as his replacement, whenever he’s ready to leave....