iPod Shortage? Not in Hawaii, Or The Apple Store.

Is it possible that Apple is selling so many iPods this holiday season that the iPod will blow through even inflated sales projections? That’s what it’s beginning to look like with only days left before Christmas.

The iPod is the hot gift giving gadget for Windows and Mac users this season. Analysts said Apple may sell over 4-million iPods in the last calendar quarter this year, nearly double the number of the previous quarter.

Are there enough iPods to go around? Maybe not.

Here’s where you’ll have trouble finding some iPod models. Amazon, Best Buy, Target, J&R, Radio Shack, some CompUSA stores. The Apple iPod by HP is available at some Radio Shack locations and a number of other retailers but HP doesn’t sell the mini.

Here in Hawaii we have an Apple Store at the crowded Ala Moana Shopping Center (near the beach). iPods? Yep. We got ‘em. But the supply continues to dwindle with some models in short supply, and some iPod mini colors unavailable.

How about the online Apple Store? If you’ve got to have an iPod mini in goldyou won’t get it for Christmas as there’s already a 3 to 5 day delay. Estimated shipping on the silver, blue, pink and green is now 1 to 3 days.

That means if you order immediately, there’s still a good chance you won’t get the iPod mini in the color of your choice. And forget laser engraving. It won’t happen before Christmas.

In fact, even iBooks, iMacs, and PowerBooks won’t make it from the Apple Store online to Santa to your place by Christmas morning—this year.

Apple does say that all iPod models (except the gold mini) can make it to you by Christmas if you order by December 22nd, for delivery by December 25th.

How about the ultra suave and similarly expensive iPod photo? $499 will get you shipment the same day you order, and should arrive before Christmas.

Does that make you feel better about not believing in Santa anymore?

Even the Wall Street Journal headlined last week that the iPod would be in short, short supply the final shopping week of the season.

As of the beginning of the calendar quarter (October 1, 2004), Apple reportedly had shipped 5.7-million iPods in TOTAL worldwide. Some news stories say estimates show over 4-million iPods will be sold in the last quarter, beginning October 1 and ending December 31.

Is there life after iPod? Yes. Assuming you can’t find an iPod in time for the holidays this year, hold on to your money for a few weeks. Web and Apple prognosticators suggest that prices will be lower in January and Apple may introduce new, less expensive flash-based iPods at Macworld San Francisco early in the month.

What will people do with an additional 4-million or so iPods? They’ll buy music at the Apple iTunes Music Store. Already there’s been 200-million songs downloaded from iTMS.

It took Apple 11 months to seel the first 50-million songs on iTMS. Then it was four months for the next 50-million songs downloaded. Three months after that, another 50-million songs had been downloaded from iTMS (at 99-cents each). The most recent 50-million downloads only took two months.

Macworld San Francisco should be interesting. It’s only a few weeks away.