Mac Market Share To Hit 10-percent By 2008?

It’s an epic David and Goliath battle, Mac vs. Windows PCs. It’s good vs. evil, right?

For market share, Windows remains the Goliath, but the Mac is growing far faster than annual PC growth in the US. Can the Mac reach 10-percent by 2008?

Recent statistics indicate that the Mac’s growth is on fire and likely to remain that way for a few more years. What will that growth do to market share?

It’s possible, if not probably, that the Mac will hit 10-percent market share within the next year to 18 months. That is a heady prediction, but this is the week before Macworld, so let me stick out my neck.

Why am I so high on Mac growth for this year? Look at the past five or six months.

NetApplication’s market share date for the Mac, dating back to August 2006, shows a dramatic increase, from 4.33-percent to 5.67-percent in December 2006.

While that’s barely a blip of 1.34-percent growth compared to Windows PCs which dominate with over 90-percent growth, the Mac is growing at over three times the rate of PCs in the past year.

Plus, the 1.34-percent figure is actually misleading—the growth rate in market share is closer to 30-percent for the Mac. From 4.33 to 5.67-percent.

For that five month period, the Mac gained about 1/4 of 1-percent market share per month.

NetApplications isn’t the only statistical model showing the Mac’s rapid incline in share.

Both Gartner and IDC have shown the Mac’s share increase in late 2006 to 6.1-percent, and 5.8-percent, respectively.

The trend is up and not likely to drop any time soon as Apple rolls out more products in 2007, and the number of Macs which can run Windows on Mac hardware increases by the millions this year.

The key to the 10-percent market share target by 2008, within the next 12 to 18 months, is growth rate. At 1/4 of 1-percent per month, or .25-percent per month, the Mac could touch double digit share before much of 2008 has passed.

That requires the Mac’s current rate to continue, of course, otherwise we get another lesson in lies, damned lies, and statistics.

What does that growth mean for the Mac and Apple? More record sales, more record Mac unit sales, more customers buying Mac products, more record profits—and, potentially, a higher stock price.

Will it happen? Mark January 2, 2008 as Alexis’ entry for, oh, say, July 1, 2008. Let’s see what the Mac’s market share is 18 months from now.

What do you think? Is it possbile? Is it probable? What will be Microsoft’s reaction to a Mac at double-digit market share?

I’m the one out on the prognostication limb today, so it’s OK to share your perspective via the Comments section below.