More iPhone Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics.

Everyone has an opinion about Apple’s iPhone; me included. Most of us want one. Me included.

How about the rest of the opinions about the iPhone? They range from insightful to utterly idiotic. If you think iPhone noise is bad now, just wait.

This week, next week, next month—all will see more opinions, more FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt—usually promulgated by competitors), more statistics, and more controversy.

How about statistics? Apple says they’d like to sell 10-million iPhones by the end of 2008; roughly one-percent of the cell phone market. Some analysts say Apple won’t even hit that number, while others say they’re likely to double or triple the number.

One of my sources from AT&T, the iPhone’s preferred cell phone carrier (insert your chuckle, laugh, snicker here), says each retail store will have about 200 iPhones to sell on opening night, June 29th, after 6 :00 PM.

Assume that to be true. There’s about 1,850 AT&T retail stores, and about 150 Apple Stores in the US, so, around 2,000 outlets total. That makes for an opening night sale of about 400,000 iPhones.

Has any cell phone carrier ever sold that many phones in a day? Like it or don’t, that’s around $200-million in sales, not including the AT&T service contract, which, at a mere $50 a month, could add another $1,200 total revenue per iPhone sold. That’s almost another $500-million in sales.

By any cell phone or cell phone carrier’s historical numbers, those are history making numbers. That’s for the first night, not the rest of the year.

How about some lies and damned lies? How about the ever-present Rob Enderle, techno pundit, and half of The Enderle Group (his wife is the other half; or, two-thirds, depending on how her recent diet is going)?

Rob says Apple may face class action lawsuits because teenagers will drive cars and try to text message using the iPhone, “blind” texting, without looking at the screen. The iPhone doesn’t have a normal keypad with keys that teenagers can feel when texting; blindly. Based on traffic accident statistics regarding teenagers, driving blindly is as popular as texting blindly.

Soooooo, Apple may face lawsuits from parents of teenagers involved in car accidents caused by their iPhones, and they’ll, of course, blame the manufacturer—Apple.

Have no fear. It only gets worse. We’re told that corporate IT departments will ban use of the iPhone because it does not work with Microsoft Exchange, somehow assuming that beleaguered Microsoft’s troublesome and expensive Exchange is the ONLY email system used by corporate America.

The LA Times has a particularly disturbing article about Apple, Macs, iPods, and the iPhone—disturbing for the utter lack of reasonable, logical, thought, and a complete grasp of pure nonsense.

For example, writer Michelle Quinn points out that Apple’s iPod market share is about 70-percent, while the Mac, after two decades of sales effort, has barely secured 5-percent.

Hmmm. How would Steve Jobs answer such a question? First, he would poke out her eyes with a mere stare. Then, he would personally pay for her extended stay at The Betty Ford Center to help her with her obvious addictions and substance abuse problems.

A comparison of Mac and iPod market share via the iPhone is so silly that Michelle should quit her job as Times intern, and go back to her job slinging hash at Central Perk. If you know what I mean.

That said, an iPhone at 5-percent annual market share ain’t too shabby; yet another statistic worth taking note—50-million iPhones a year in a few years? That alone could double Apple’s annual revenue.

The lies, damned lies, and statistical FUD will continue well beyond the iPhone’s launch and maturity as a product that instills lust in cell phone and iPod owners. We’ll do our best to find the most entertaining and ridiculous and accurate.

How about you? Do you plan to be in line to buy an iPhone, or will you wait and see? Why? Discussion is open in the Forums.