Problems And Pains: Apple’s Top 10 List Today.

Problem #5: Viruses, Worms, et al
How can this be a problem for Apple and why is it ranked in the Top 5? There are no known viruses or worms or spyware for Mac OS X. What’s the problem?

There will be. Unlike Windows, which gets a new virus every day, the Mac has none. The first one will be a big headache and a PR nightmare.

Apple needs to be prepared to respond quickly, both technically to plug whatever hole may exist, and publicly to minimize the fallout.

Problem #4: IBM and Motorola
Motorola screwed Apple big time with a line of chips that could not get past the 500 mhz speed trap for, oh, about 12 years (so it seemed at the time).

Apple then cuddles up to the other PowerPC chip maker, IBM. The result? Faster chips, lots of publicity, even an announcement that 3ghz chips would be available by mid-2004. It’s almost mid-2005 and no 3ghz chips in sight.

Apple’s dependency on Motorola and IBM for chips that are competitive with Intel’s offerings is a weakness. It’s also a serious problem that doesn’t have a short-term solution.

Sony, IBM, and others have collaborated on a next generation chip called “the Cell.” Apple needs to be in line when those chips roll out the door.

Problem #3: Steve Jobs Successor
This is a serious problem. Few companies that are so influential in their industry are so tied up with the fortunes of the co-founder and CEO as Apple is with Steve Jobs.

Jobs just turned 50 and has earned more fortunes than most people would ever dream of.

Few would argue that he rescued Apple from a certain death and has steered the company back to financial health, mindshare market share, and brought “cool” back to the Cupertino Mac and iPod maker.

Who’s next in line? What happens to Apple when Steve’s no longer around? Is there an internal heir-apparent? What’s the plan?

If “as Steve goes, Apple goes” is accurate, a stronger-than-strong #2 guy needs to step forward.

Problem #2: iPod and Itunes Market Share
How could these numbers possibly show up as a problem or a pain for Apple? The iTunes Music Store reportedly has a 70-percent market share of the legal music downloads.

The iPod has about 90-percent of the portable hard drive music player market share. First Quarter numbers are likely to show Apple owns a chunk of the US flash-based music player market, and will probably own that market by end of summer, even before the next holiday shopping season.

What’s wrong with that picture, Tera?

There’s only one way to go. Down.

90-percent of anything is hard to hold on to. Even the perception that Apple’s losing a little marketshare in either music downloads or portable music players to anyone is bad news.

Why? Because that inevitable shift leads to the worst problem on my list for Apple Computer.

Problem #1: Apple’s Stock Price
What goes up, must come down. If you bought AAPL a few years ago when the price flirted with $13 a share, lucky you. What was the recent high before the split? Nearly $90? It’s at $40 now (after the split). Sell and move on.

What can Apple do to prevent a stock price slide or, at best, stagnation? The PE ratio is already nearing an abnormal level, despite recent analysts saying it’ll go higher (I always consider that a bad sign). I don’t think there’s much they can do.

This stock has nowhere to go. Rather, it has nowhere to go up.

If a couple of the problems and pains on the list are not taken care of by Apple, AAPL will not hit the “target of $55” as some predict. It’ll drop like a rock.

That’s a look at Apple’s problems and pains; my Top 10 List. What about you? Did I miss a problem? What do you think? Share your comment and/or experience with other readers and click the Comments link below.

What else could go on the list? Lackluster marketing of Mac products? Shrinking Mac market share? Both have argumentative quality. What’s on your list?

update from tera It’s not all gloom and doom, though the above list seems to weigh heavy. Apple’s current position is substantially better than, say, oh, I don’t know, back in 1996 when SATAN ran the company into the ground.

Apple has over $6-billion in the bank, a growing market share (even against PCs), highly acclaimed software products (by nearly everyone, but we still want something to compete with Office), awards, awards, awards, and they OWN the portable music market (no one is close).

Physics enters into every equation, sooner or later. What goes up, must come down. To make the “ups” higher and the “downs” not so low, Apple will need to solve the problems on my Top 10 List.

Are you a betting person? Bet on these three: 1) internally, Apple’s list of problems and pains is longer than mine, and, 2) they’re already hard at work on all of them, 3) Apple will win more than they lose.