The Danger Of Predicting Apple’s Future.

We all want to know what tomorrow brings. That is especially true with new products from Apple, Inc.

Is there danger in predicting what Apple will do next? Yes, it’s dangerous and fun—for all the wrong reasons.

Most of Mac360’s predictions for what products Apple will bring to market are based upon what we want rather than some insider knowledge. Our record is 50-50 at best. Or worst.

We’re predicting that the iPod will get a widescreen, touchscreen version, similar to the iPhone. This year. Or next year.

See? Predicting the future is easy. Getting it right takes a little work, some luck, and access to a widescreen LCD crystal ball.

Long ago the folks at Mac360 predicted a wireless audio and video streaming device for the TV. Actually, it was more of a want than a prediction, but it came true, right? Isn’t AppleTV a wireless streaming media device for your TV?

We’ve also predicted an Apple iPad—a touch screen tablet Mac with wireless, larger screen, etc. A prediction is never wrong until a product is never released, right?

The danger in predicting anything for the future is that reality is often different, which makes our predictions look foolish, which diminishes our credibility. Apple is particularly difficult for prognosticators to nail a prediction.

The two major Mac sites who delve into scoops, predictions, secrets, etc., are ThinkSecret and AppleInsider.

ThinkSecret used to be pretty good at divulging inside poop, but since Apple sued their record has been spotty potty.

For example, on May 30, Ryan Katz, in ThinkSecret said that Apple customers waiting for a 17-inch MacBook Pro with display resolution of 1920 x 1200 would be disappointed—no option was forthcoming.

Except that the option in question actually forthcame from Apple just the other day with a high res LED screen, and, you guessed it—1920 x 1200 resolution.

It’s dangerous to predict. But it’s also fun. Take another example—Steve Jobs’ “secret features” in Mac OS X Leopard. Where are they? Apple’s not telling, and no one has a list of predictions.

One “secret” that popped up recently is that Leopard will include Sun’s highly touted ZFS file system as the default file system. Without going into all the nasty details that I don’t fully understand anyway, ZFS would be cool for the Mac. See? I can be succinct and ambiguous at the same time.

That makes for a great rumor, and a really impressive secret feature, right?

Except for the fact that the ZFS file system doesn’t support case sensitive file names. Yet. Maybe that’s Apple’s secret.

Maybe Apple will introduce a new Mac logo on the order of London’s 2012 Olympic Logo, which apparently causes seizures. Apple’s new logo, when flashed on the TV screen, could force Windows users to switch. That’d make for a great Dr. Who episode.

Sometimes just stating a general opinion makes it a prediction, which, when unfulfilled, seems to grow egg on the face of the predictor. Take Lance Davis in The Register.

He says the iPhone is a smartphone and it will be late because all smartphones are late. Apple said iPhone is ready as of June 29. Maybe that’s when you can order it. Or look at it. Or buy it. If you can buy the iPhone in June, then Lance’s prediction will grow on his face in the form of an egg; broken.

I’m predicting that Steve Jobs will introduce, uh, um… something new and cool for Leopard at Apple’s June World Wide Developer’s conference. Seriously. I’m good at dodging eggs. What’s on your list for upcoming Apple products?