There’s the hare and the tortoise. The ant and the grasshopper. What goes up must come down. David and Goliath. The Little Engine that Could. Apple and Microsoft. Mac and Windows. iPhone and Android. Yes, folks, Apple is doomed. Again.
Three Years, Tops
Simplistic argumentation seems to be the domain of humans. You don’t see wolves arguing with one another over how long the tasty moose will keep them well fed, right?
Yet, Apple, always the scrappy underdog, the company on the verge of collapse, is doomed to a footnote in technology history.
I won’t give you a link to review the nonsense because I think folks like Pedro de Noronha, a hedge fund guru quoted on CNBC do what they do because sensationalist headlines are all the rage these days.
Oh, and modern writers get paid based upon the number of hits to their articles, so, well, you know– the crazier the better, right?
Pedro de Noronha surveyed the technology sector and determined that “it’s a very competitive landscape.” Really? I hadn’t heard.
Wait. Unfortunately, there’s more.
I need to know where a company is going to be in 5-to-10 years. I mean look at Apple, a company we all admire. I don’t know where they are going to be in three years… It’s a very competitive landscape. They might become obsolete in two-to-three years, as we’ve seen with dozens of technology companies.
Yep. Wait. Which ones?
No, don’t bother to give me a list of technology companies that failed. That’s a long, long list and it gets updated every day. How about a list of companies that once were at the very top of their game and then disappeared from the landscape in two to three years.
Is Apple on that list?
One thing Pedro de Noronha said that’s certainly agreeable, but comes from the perspective of someone who buys stock in companies, therefore, probably prefers a low price to actual valuation.
Netflix’s stock price is so high it’s “make-believe.” But that’s a long list of tech companies, too. Facebook, anyone?
Apple’s story is one of rags to riches to rags and to riches again. The critical narrative has always been that Apple is a niche company, that competing products are commodity items, and the premium player– it’s always Apple– cannot survive.
Yet, here we are, moving quickly into the 21st century and the most profitable technology company on the planet, the one with the most customers, the one with the most money in the bank, the one that disrupts industry after industry, is still around. Yet oh so doomed.
Name one competitor that wouldn’t prefer to be doomed the way Apple appears to be doomed.