Two of the major requirements for bona fide certified Apple watching includes, 1) using Apple products, 2) reading about all things Apple. I’ve had my hair catch on fire when using a few Apple products, but that happens a few times a week when I read what others write about Apple.
Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics
After a few years of embedding myself in Apple’s wars with cutthroat competitors who have no scruples and steal whatever Apple designs, and watching the company rise from the ashes, Phoenix-like, I’ve come to a conclusion.
Most of what you read about Apple is rubbish. Facts are facts. Rubbish is what technorati elite and market prognosticators write when they don’t have access to facts. That explains why Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted an Apple television every year for years. No facts.
Here are a few examples from just this week.
Remember all the noise about how the battery for Apple Watch wouldn’t get through the day? Wrong. Battery life is a non-issue. Most users report 30-percent to 40-percent battery power remains at the end of the day. How about those who said it would help drain the iPhones’ battery? Wrong again. Users report that iPhone’s battery lasts longer because it’s used less, stays in the pocket more; thanks to Watch.
The latest tidbit says Apple Watch orders were great on the first day, but have fallen off sharply since. Well, duh. But how far is the fall off? Where did the researchers get their numbers? Apparently from the same locale as inhabited by Preparation-H. There may be a mathematical formula, a methodology, and some data, but the numbers are made up guesstimates.
Only Apple knows.
That fact didn’t stop Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty to raise sales estimates for Watch. Why? Her research shows the device to be addictive and demand is rising. That’s in direct opposition to Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities who said demand for Watch is falling?
Only Apple knows.
What Apple does not know, and neither does anyone else with any accuracy, is what will happen to Apple’s stock in the future. Well, it’s one of three things. Remain static, go up, go down. Another analyst says AAPL is poised for another record. Corporate raider Carl Icahn hasn’t sold off his shares of Apple stock. He’s already made a few billion dollars by not paying attention to the nattering nabobs of negativity who pontificate on Apple’s fortunes.
My father once told me there are two ways to make a small fortune in the stock market. The first was, “Start with a large fortune.” The second was, “Buy and sell when the big boys buy and sell.” With the exception of Icahn, most of the big boys don’t make much noise about what they buy and sell and when. It’s the little folk who write about Apple’s failing fortunes who should take my father’s advice.