Enough with all the fake everything these days. Well, OK. Just one more. We’ve all heard about fake news and contrived outrage. We’ve all heard how Apple is on the ropes (again) and how 2017 won’t be a good year (again).
There are some facts to back up the news that hasn’t happened yet. iPhone sales are down. iPad sales are down. Mac sales are down. The guesstimators say Watch sales are down. Well, if everything important is down, that can only mean one thing. It’s all about to get better (again).
Sore APPL? Or, Soaring Apple?
The nattering nabobs of negativism have been going door to door all year predicting gloom and doom for our favorite Cupertino gadget makers and blogger mental floss manufacturer. Yes, every certified card carrying member of the technorati elite politburo says Apple is about to pull a Samsung and go down in flames, sans battery-gate.
Except Jim Suva at Citi Research:
- “iPhone 8 Super Upgrade Cycle driven by newer form factors driving a stronger upgrade relative to the prior 2 cycles”
- “Tax reform benefit from reduction in corporate taxes and cash repatriation”
- “Sticky user base which drives continued services revenue growth”
- “Enterprise push mid term, Applewood longer term”
- “Attractive valuation – Shares trade at a slight discount to their 4 year median multiples despite improving fundamentals ahead”
Whoa. Who? Yeah, that Citi. The same Citi that was fined $30-million for leaking iPhone supply chain data a few years ago, so they should know a thing or two about Apple because they predicted an iPhone 7 Plus with dual cameras.
Wait. What? If everything Apple is doing except Services is going down, then what happened to gloom and doom? Why is Citi so high on Apple for 2017? It all has to do with what Citi says is a ‘Super Cycle‘ whereby Apple sells more iPhones than expected, at higher average unit prices, which begets higher gross margins, which begets more profits.
Ipso facto and Voila! Apple and APPL do better in 2017. Or, so says the Citi Research crystal ball.
What’s interesting about all this should be obvious. Apple just released the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, a year after the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. If the tick tock routine holds– and it has since iPhone 4, the iPhone 4s, et al– wouldn’t 2017’s iPhone be an iPhone 7s and iPhone 7s Plus and not an iPhone 8?
Aha! That’s it. Citi is predicting Apple’s future and it won’t be with an iPhone 7s model. Apple plans to skip it altogether because iPhone 8 will be just that cool. Or, hot. You understand, right?
So, instead of an incremental tock to the tick of iPhone 7, we’ll see a jump to iPhone 8 with OLED display, edge-to-edge micro bezel, embedded Home button, and all the usual trappings of better camera, new iOS 11 features, improved water resistance rating, user-faster A-Series CPU, blah and blah, and so on.
These are just guesstimates for what Apple’s future will bring. Guesstimates, of course, are just another form of a fake reality which just hasn’t arrived yet. Matrix, anyone?