Regular Mac360 readers will know I have a penchant for slicing and dicing the obvious bias of wayward technology writers, and guesstimators who pull numbers from their patootie to share with an unsuspecting readership.
I’ve been doing this for about a dozen years and there is just so much new material to chew into that I could call it a never ending job if I got paid for it. As for now, it’s a duty, a responsibility, and a lot of fun to point out such ridiculousness.
Do you own one of Apple’s highly touted and highly expensive HomePods? Of course not. Well, at least 98 of every one hundred Apple customers do not have HomePod. Apple doesn’t reveal actual sales numbers so any numerical consideration for success means we have to enlist the help of professional guesstimators.
Levin & Lowitz writing for CIRP explain the nonsense in deceiving but sensical terms:
Apple HomePod has a 6% share of the US installed base of smart speakers (as of June 30, 2018). Across the market, consumers migrated to the lowest-priced models. For the two biggest competitors, Echo Dot accounts for over half of the Amazon Echo installed base, and Home mini is about 40% of the Google Home installed base.
Shocker. The most expensive product does not have the same marketshare as the least expensive products. Do a little math and you’ll see where HomePod, priced about five times the average selling price of an Alexa Echo or Google Home, probably owns 30-percent of marketshare and at least that much of profit share.
Wait. There’s more.
Only 2% of Apple customers have a HomePod as of the June 2018 quarter, with Amazon Echo and Google Home having far greater shares
Oh. Sorry. My bad. We’re back to marketshare again. 2-percent cannot be good, right? Well, it depends. CIRP says HomePod has only a 2-percent marketshare of Apple’s own customers. How many is that? Apple says they have more than 1.3-billion devices in the wild. Horace Dediu outlined that trend a few years ago so I think it’s safe to say Apple has between 800-million and a billion customers.
Let’s go with the lower number; 800-million. 2-percent of 800-million is 16-million. So, in less than 10 months Apple has sold 16-million HomePods. It’s math. HomePods are $349, so my Mac’s calculator says that’s an annualized run rate in excess of somewhere around $5.584-billion dollars (roughly the same as guesstimators put the Watch, and that’s now considered a huge success). $5.584-billion.
Billion. With a B.
Again, guesstimates, but it just shows to go you that lies, damned lies, and statistics are still a thing decades after Mark Twain bit the dust. Take the numbers from such guesstimators and do the basic math.
HomePod is a huge success.