One perspective has great technological advances with smartphone ubiquity. Another perspective points out that humankind is more divided and it’s because of the internet. I think 2019 is going to be much like 1999.
For some strange reason that might have a solution but I haven’t bothered to figure out, my RSS newsreader keeps sending me PC magazine articles from John C. Dvorak. Yes, that Dvorak; the notorious naysayer and prognosticator of all things technological, including a disdain for Apple, the Mac’s mouse, and the iPhone.
Few are more contrarian than John C. and somehow, even with an RSS blast from the past, two not-so-recent articles showed up in my newsreader that are worthy of consideration.
The First Missive:
Where Is the Disruptive Software?
Indeed. My 21st century Mac has a list of the most used applications and they date from the last century. A browser, email, photos, music, graphics, Word, Excel (or, their Apple counterparts, Pages and Numbers), and various and sundry utilities to get done a day’s work while slaving over a hot keyboard. Just like 1999.
Where is the truly disruptive software? Are we stuck with Microsoft Word until the end of eternity?
Indeed. What’s new under the software sun that wasn’t so new in 1999?
If we are to subscribe to the entire disruption idea, then nothing in the field of technology existing today should still be around in a decade, but lack of innovation in traditional computer tech is lagging.
We’re still doing much the same as we did in 1999 and on similar software.
The Second Missive takes a different perspective:
The Traditional Laptop Is Dead
My first Apple notebook was a PowerBook. Rounded corners, clamshell form factor, keyboard, display, and trackpad. What has changed in the past 20 years? The original PowerBook, circa 1992 looks much like a thicker MacBook Air in 2018.
I suppose the Chromebook is the only innovation if you call a modernized circa 1970s dumb terminal an innovation.
That innovation is obvious. Cheap. For me, I get about five years from each Mac and make it a hand-me-down device; not because it doesn’t work, but because it doesn’t run the latest macOS Bakersfield version and I like to keep up with the Joneses.
The guts of any modern laptop that runs Windows 10 should last five or more years, no? Let’s face it, there is no new technology appearing to make us all want to buy a new one.
That might explain why Apple is raising prices. People are keeping Apple gear longer than ever.
Our computing lives are about software and hardware. I submit that we still do much the same kind of work with software and hardware doesn’t last as long as it could, should, or we want it to.
Dvorak is spot on. 2019 will be much like 1999.