Apple co-founder and former CEO Steve Jobs seemed quite prescient about the future back in the 1980s and 1990s, and then delivered the future with iPhone and iPad in the 21st century. This is why we should not worry about Apple’s future.
Few techno-gadget companies that compete with Apple receive the same level of scrutiny from the press, critics, and market analysts. The standard meme is, “Everything Apple is doing is wrong.” So say the armchair quarterbacks of the 21st century.
What is their record? Who is keeping score so we know which prognosticators to follow and which to avoid?
Unfortunately, few keep score, so even today, in the age where everything is recorded and saved for posterity, we don’t know who to trust or whom to believe.
What got me on this streak is a piece from Matt Novak on nuclear bombs and their potential– back in 1965.
Yes, it was a different era back then.
Americans of the 1950s and ‘60s had a complicated relationship with nuclear weapons. People were constantly being bombarded with the idea that nukes were necessary to deter the Soviet Union from invading the United States, but there was a very real fear that the same type of weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki could be used on American cities like New York.
How bad was it back then? Some scientists thought nuclear power could be harnessed to dig ditches.
A click on the image will get you a bigger version that is easier to read.
Think about this. It was the mid-1960s. Were people as stupid back then as they seem to be now? Compare our current political situation with this:
Most of the radioactivity could be kept underground so that workers could go into the craters within a week or two and people live nearby within a year.
And it would be less expensive than using traditional explosives to dig ditches and canals.
The Boring Company looks pretty good now, right?
What this boils down to is obvious. Humans are not very good at predicting the future. A few yes, but you have to wait until the future gets here to find out which ones.
I looked at the past, then looked at the present, then looked at how Apple has conducted business over the past 20 years and I’m certain the company will not be in the trouble that nattering nabobs of negativism or members of the technorati elite politburo think it will be in the next decade.
We just have to wait 10 years to see if I’m right.